CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-10-11T03:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-10-11T03:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41682/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and faintly to the NNE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption starting around 2025-10-11T01:16Z north of former AR 14246 (approximately N25E10). The eruption is best seen as dimming and moving field lines in GOES SUVI 195. The eruption is also visible near the NE limb from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. No arrival signature detected in the solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-14T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41684/1 Model Inputs: 2025-10-11T03:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=433.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2025-10-11T10:10Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-14T10:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=4 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-14T05:00Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-12T22:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251011_101000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 68.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-11T13:25Z
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